analysis of statistics

Caterpillar Inc (NYSE:CAT) shares traded on -1.67% below secure line and closed at $119.81. The stock exchanged hands 4.67 Million shares versus average trading capacity of 4.26 Million shares. It has a market cap of $68.58 Billion.

Wall Street analysts are predicting that Caterpillar Inc (NYSE:CAT) will report earnings per share of $3.13 in their quarterly report. For the current quarter Caterpillar Inc (NYSE:CAT) has high EPS estimates of $3.25 in contradiction of low EPS estimates of $2.99. However a year ago for the same quarter the company has reported $2.97 EPS. Average estimation for the current quarter has been provided by 21 analysts.

Investors as well as the sell-side will be paying close attention to how the actual numbers compare with the estimates. Earnings surprises can have a huge impact on a company’s stock price. Several studies suggest that positive earnings surprises not only lead to an immediate hike in a stock’s price, but also to a gradual increase over time. Hence, it’s not surprising that some companies are known for routinely beating earning projections. A negative earnings surprise will usually result in a decline in share price.

A large surprise factor in either direction typically can lead to a significant swing in the stock price in the hours and days after the report. Previously Caterpillar Inc (NYSE:CAT) reported $2.94 earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter, beating the consensus estimate of $2.85 by $0.09 with surprise factor of 3.2%.

Caterpillar Inc (NYSE:CAT) has average revenue estimates of $14.46 Billion, compared to low analyst estimates of $13.91 Billion and high estimates of $14.91 Billion for the current quarter. A total number of 16 analysts provided estimations over revenues. For the current year the company’s revenue estimates are $56.64 Billion compared to low analyst estimates of $53.84 Billion and high estimates of $58.41 Billion according to the prediction of 19 analysts.

Taking a broader look at the analyst consensus, according to 23 analysts Caterpillar Inc (NYSE:CAT)’s price will reach at $149.96 during 52 weeks. Its minimum price target estimates has been figured out at $123 while the maximum price target forecast is established at $200.

On the other hand Caterpillar Inc (NYSE:CAT) has Relative Strength Index (RSI 14) of 28.72 along with Average True Range (ATR 14) of 2.9. Where the relative strength index (RSI) is a technical momentum indicator that compares the magnitude of recent gains to recent losses in an attempt to determine excess buying & selling conditions of an asset, it is one of the most popular technical indicators, computed on the basis of the speed and direction of a stock’s price movement. The RSI value will always move between 0 and 100; the value will be 0 if the stock falls on all 14 days, and 100, if the price moves up on all the days) as suggested by J Welles Wilder. In terms of market analysis and trading signals, RSI moving above the horizontal 30 reference level is viewed as a bullish indicator, while the RSI moving below the horizontal 70 reference level is seen to be a bearish indicator. The level of 50 represents neutral market momentum and corresponds with the center line in other oscillators such as MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence). The average true range (ATR) is a measure of volatility introduced by Welles Wilder.

Consequently Caterpillar Inc (NYSE:CAT)’s weekly and monthly volatility is 1.62%, 2.16% respectively.