analysis of statistics

Petroleo Brasileiro S.A.- Petrobras (NYSE:PBR) shares traded on 2.76% above secure line and closed at $15.62. The stock exchanged hands 19.82 Million shares versus average trading capacity of 25.61 Million shares. It has a market cap of $90.85 Billion.

Wall Street analysts are predicting that Petroleo Brasileiro S.A.- Petrobras (NYSE:PBR) will report earnings per share of $0.5 in their quarterly report. For the current quarter Petroleo Brasileiro S.A.- Petrobras (NYSE:PBR) has high EPS estimates of $0.85 in contradiction of low EPS estimates of $0.17. However a year ago for the same quarter the company has reported $0.43 EPS. Average estimation for the current quarter has been provided by 7 analysts.

Investors as well as the sell-side will be paying close attention to how the actual numbers compare with the estimates. Earnings surprises can have a huge impact on a company’s stock price. Several studies suggest that positive earnings surprises not only lead to an immediate hike in a stock’s price, but also to a gradual increase over time. Hence, it’s not surprising that some companies are known for routinely beating earning projections. A negative earnings surprise will usually result in a decline in share price.

A large surprise factor in either direction typically can lead to a significant swing in the stock price in the hours and days after the report. Previously Petroleo Brasileiro S.A.- Petrobras (NYSE:PBR) reported $0.26 earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter, missing the consensus estimate of $0.4 by $-0.14 with surprise factor of -35%.

Petroleo Brasileiro S.A.- Petrobras (NYSE:PBR) has average revenue estimates of $24.12 Billion, compared to low analyst estimates of $21.36 Billion and high estimates of $25.84 Billion for the current quarter. A total number of 5 analysts provided estimations over revenues. For the current year the company’s revenue estimates are $94.86 Billion compared to low analyst estimates of $88.79 Billion and high estimates of $101.31 Billion according to the prediction of 10 analysts.

Taking a broader look at the analyst consensus, according to 14 analysts Petroleo Brasileiro S.A.- Petrobras (NYSE:PBR)’s price will reach at $16.58 during 52 weeks. Its minimum price target estimates has been figured out at $12 while the maximum price target forecast is established at $20.5.

On the other hand Petroleo Brasileiro S.A.- Petrobras (NYSE:PBR) has Relative Strength Index (RSI 14) of 68.86 along with Average True Range (ATR 14) of 0.58. Where the relative strength index (RSI) is a technical momentum indicator that compares the magnitude of recent gains to recent losses in an attempt to determine excess buying & selling conditions of an asset, it is one of the most popular technical indicators, computed on the basis of the speed and direction of a stock’s price movement. The RSI value will always move between 0 and 100; the value will be 0 if the stock falls on all 14 days, and 100, if the price moves up on all the days) as suggested by J Welles Wilder. In terms of market analysis and trading signals, RSI moving above the horizontal 30 reference level is viewed as a bullish indicator, while the RSI moving below the horizontal 70 reference level is seen to be a bearish indicator. The level of 50 represents neutral market momentum and corresponds with the center line in other oscillators such as MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence). The average true range (ATR) is a measure of volatility introduced by Welles Wilder.

Consequently Petroleo Brasileiro S.A.- Petrobras (NYSE:PBR)’s weekly and monthly volatility is 3.63%, 3.75% respectively.